Abstract：Starting from the existing probability of different geologic condition controlling forming reservoir and probabilistic distribution of calculating parameters of resource extent,using analytic probabilistic algorithm to replace Monte Carlo method and based on conditional probability and every expectation-variance relation between random variables,the paper takesnorth margin of Chaidamu Basin as an example to calculate the probabilistic distribution of the number of reservoirs and resource extent in that region.The results showed that using analytis probabilistic algorithm to predict resource extent fairly tallies with the actual situation and is believable.Finally,the major conclusions are as follows;①analytic probabilistic algorithm has advantages of fast calculation speed and high precision;②the petroleum resources in north margin of Chaidamu Basin are concentrated at Eboliang No.1-Hulushan-and No.2-Yahu structural belts,Lenghu structural belt and Nanbaxian-Mahai structural belt.
刘晓冬, 徐景祯 . 区带油气资源量计算的解析概率法及其在柴达木盆地北缘的应用[J]. 石油地球物理勘探, 2002, 37(4): 395-400,422.
Liu Xiaodong, Xu Jingzhen. Analytic probabilistic algorithm of calculating regional oil resource extent and its application in north margin of Chaidamu Basin. OGP, 2002, 37(4): 395-400,422.
